Taiwan military scholar on the Taiwan Strait: Fierce soldiers but no danger of war

By Eric

2021.10.14

The Taiwan Institute for National Security Studies (TIS) held a seminar yesterday at which academics analysed the current military situation in the Taiwan Strait as being “fierce but not dangerous”, given the recent message from Communist Party leader Xi Jinping that he has no intention of using force against Taiwan and the seeming understanding between the US and China on security in the Taiwan Strait.

According to reports, Ma Zhen-kun, director of the Institute of Military Affairs of the Chinese Communist Party at the National Defense University in Taiwan, said at the conference that the PLA is expected to continue to increase its military pressure on Taiwan by means of aircraft arriving in Taiwan before the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party next year, but has no intention of raising tensions to armed conflict to avoid cross-strait or Sino-US gunfire.

Ma Zhenkun believes that the reason why the military situation in the Taiwan Strait is “fierce but not dangerous” can be observed from Xi Jinping’s speech at the 110th anniversary of the Xinhai Revolution last Saturday (9). This is different from the previous situation where US military aircraft frequently appeared in the airspace around Taiwan.

According to Su Zi-wan, director of the Institute of Military Strategy and Industry at the Institute for Defense and Security Studies, Beijing does not fight wars that it is not sure of. If an attack on Taiwan fails, the consequences would be unacceptable to Beijing. Under such circumstances, China will not act rashly, and even if there is a possibility of an accidental conflict in the Taiwan Strait, it will be quickly extinguished.

Chivalrous island alludes to military planes circling Taiwan to “welcome” US military exercises
In an article published yesterday by “Rogue Island”, a WeChat public number under the overseas edition of People’s Daily, “China’s record-breaking military aircraft patrol Taiwan, a warning and a rehearsal”, it was said that the US-led naval fleet had recently held joint military exercises in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, and it was “self-evident” who they were targeting. The article also said that the Chinese side is “not being polite if it doesn’t show a strategic posture of anti-access/area denial. The article also says that the Taiwanese people “need not be worried about the military aircraft circling Taiwan. China has made it clear that Chinese people do not fight Chinese people, and that non-peaceful means are not aimed at Taiwan compatriots. (Ming Pao)
*** Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) ***

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